NHTSA has sought information by a variety of means to help it determine when the vehicle manufacturers can provide advanced air bag systems to consumers. This is known as lead time. Vehicle lead time is a complex issue, especially when it involves technology and designs that are still under development.
In three different formal actions, the agency has gathered information concerning lead time. First, the agency held a public meeting on advanced air bags on February 11 and 12, 1997, in Washington D.C. The proceedings of that meeting are included in Docket NHTSA-97-2814. Next, and as discussed earlier in this notice, JPL conducted, at NHTSA's request, a survey of the automotive industry and independent analysis concerning the readiness of the advanced air bag technologies. Finally, the agency contracted Management Engineering Associates (MEA), an engineering management consulting company, to conduct a feasibility study on advanced air bag technologies.
These three sources of information indicated the same basic time schedules: currently available technological solutions such as seat sensors, seat belt buckle sensors, dual-stage inflators and advanced air bag fold patterns, can be and will be in production between model year 1999 and model year 2002. More sophisticated systems such as dynamic occupant position sensing systems and pre-crash sensors, will be available after September 1, 2001.
NHTSA has also held numerous meetings with the vehicle manufacturers and suppliers during the past two years. The companies have shared confidential information with the agency about their ongoing development efforts and future product plans.
The agency notes that lead time for technology still under development typically depends on two things: initial development to demonstrate that a concept is feasible, and then further development to apply the technology to a specific vehicle design. These typically involve efforts both by suppliers and by vehicle manufacturers. In this field of technology, it appears that much of the innovative development is being borne by the component suppliers, based on performance specifications defined by the vehicle manufacturers. First the systems are designed, tested and produced in limited quantities by the component manufacturers. Next these systems are turned over to the vehicle manufacturers. The vehicle manufacturers then conduct prototype design verifications, conduct production level equipment verification and finally complete production and include the systems in their new vehicles. MEA estimates the vehicle manufacturers' cycle could take an average of 36 months.
The suppliers and vehicle manufacturers have, however, been working on various advanced technologies for several years. Thus, to a large degree, lead time is dependent on where the suppliers and vehicle manufacturers are currently in their development and implementation efforts. As discussed earlier in this notice, NHTSA believes that different suppliers and vehicle manufacturers are at different stages with respect to designing advanced air bags, and also face different constraints and challenges, e.g., different states-of-the-art of their current air bag systems, engineering resources, number of vehicles for which air bags need to be redesigned, etc. NHTSA believes that these differing situations can best be accommodated by phasing in requirements for advanced air bags.
Taking account of all available information, including but not limited to the wide variety of available technologies that can be used to improve air bags (and thereby meet the proposed requirements) and information concerning where the different suppliers and vehicle manufacturers are in developing and implementing available technologies, the agency is proposing to phase in the new requirements in accordance with the following implementation schedule:
25 percent of each manufacturer's light vehicles manufactured during the production year beginning September 1, 2002;
40 percent of each manufacturer's light vehicles manufactured during the production year beginning September 1, 2003;
70 percent of each manufacturer's light vehicles manufactured during the production year beginning September 1, 2004;
All vehicles manufactured on or after September 1, 2005.
The agency is proposing a separate alternative to address the special problems faced by limited line manufacturers in complying with phase-ins. The agency notes that a phase-in generally permits vehicle manufacturers flexibility with respect to which vehicles they choose to initially redesign to comply with new requirements. However, if a manufacturer produces a very limited number of lines, e.g., one or two, a phase-in would not provide such flexibility.
NHTSA is accordingly proposing to permit manufacturers which produce two or fewer carlines the option of omitting the first year of the phase-in if they achieve full compliance effective September 1, 2003. The agency is proposing to limit this alternative to manufacturers which produce two or fewer carlines in light of the statutory requirement concerning when the phase-in is to begin. Without such a limitation, it would technically be possible for the industry as a whole to delay introducing any advanced air bags for a year. However, the agency doubts that any full-line vehicle manufacturers would want to take advantage of the alternative, given the need to achieve full compliance by September 1, 2003.
As with previous phase-ins, the agency is proposing to exclude vehicles manufactured in two or more stages and altered vehicles from the phase-in requirements. These vehicles would be subject to the advanced air bag requirements effective September 1, 2005. They would, of course, be subject to Standard No. 208's existing requirements before and throughout the phase-in.
Also as with previous phase-ins, NHTSA is proposing reporting requirements to accompany the phase-in. The agency is proposing to include the reporting requirements in 49 CFR Part 585, which currently specifies automatic restraint phase-in reporting requirements. Since the phase-ins currently addressed by Part 585 are complete, effective September 1, 1998, the agency is proposing to replace the existing language with regulatory text addressing the phase-in of Standard No. 208's requirements for advanced air bags.
NHTSA believes that the proposed phase-in addresses two potential concerns. First, the agency believes that it would not be possible for manufacturers which produce large numbers of models of passenger cars and lights trucks to simultaneously design and implement advanced air bags in all of their vehicles at once. All manufacturers have limited engineering resources, and the same resources are often used for different models. The proposed phase-in will address this concern.
Second, NHTSA wishes to see advanced air bags implemented expeditiously, but wants to encourage the vehicle manufacturers to adopt the best designs possible. The agency believes the proposed phase-in balances these competing concerns.
The new air bag designs having the potential to offer the greatest safety benefits, e.g. designs that would tailor inflation based on the widest variety of relevant information including dynamic occupant proximity, also have the longest lead times. If an effective date were too early, it might force manufacturers working on such advanced designs to drop those plans and adopt designs with shorter lead times. At the same time, the agency recognizes that relatively simple solutions, with shorter lead times, can be used to solve current problems with air bags. The agency therefore does not want endless quests for the "perfect" air bag to unnecessarily delay solving the current problems.
An issue which is closely related to lead time for advanced air bags is the time when amendments providing temporary reductions in Standard No. 208's performance requirements should expire. The amendment permitting manufacturers to provide manual on-off switches for air bags in vehicles without rear seats or with rear seats too small to accommodate a rear facing infant seat is scheduled to expire on September 1, 2000. The amendment providing a generic sled test alternative to Standard No. 208's unbelted barrier test requirements originally had an expiration date of September 1, 2001, although, as discussed earlier in this notice, this date has been superseded by the NHTSA Reauthorization Act of 1998.
The agency received petitions objecting to the expiration dates for these temporary amendments. In an appendix to this notice, NHTSA is denying the petition concerning on-off switches to the extent that it requests making the switch amendment permanent. However, the agency is granting it to the extent that it is proposing phase out the switch amendment as the upgraded requirements are phased in. The petitions concerning the sled test option were mooted by the NHTSA Reauthorization Act. As in the case of the switch amendment, the agency is proposing to phase out the sled test option as the new requirements are phased in.
During the proposed phase-in, the temporary amendments (sled test alternative and OEM manual on-off switches for certain vehicles) would not be available for vehicles certified to the upgraded requirements, but would be available for other vehicles under the same conditions as they are currently available. Thus, as manufacturers developed advanced air bags, they would need to ensure that vehicles equipped with these devices meet all of Standard No. 208's longstanding performance requirements as well as the new ones being proposed today.
